Under the influence of an active Western Disturbance and associated induced cyclonic circulation with moderate to widespread rainfall over central, eastern and southern parts of India from March 13 to 18, meteorologists on Saturday predicted the onset of pre-monsoon activities that would damage the crop. There may be damage.
This early spell of unseasonal rain and thundershowers between March 6 and 8 has already caused crop damage in large parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.
Strong winds and hailstorm destroyed the crop, which could not recover the losses.
Now, the country is gearing up for another prolonged spell of pre-monsoon rain and thundershowers accompanied by thundershowers, hailstorm and lightning.
With this, the threat of crop loss looms large over the standing crop in many parts of India.
The upcoming spell will be the result of an interaction between several weather systems. As per the climate model, a dual cyclonic circulation is likely to form over East Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and adjoining North Andhra Pradesh.
A trough is likely to form between these two systems.
Both the systems will become more marked due to moisture feed from the Arabian Sea as well as from the Bay of Bengal on the other side. Besides, an active Western Disturbance is likely to pass through the Western Himalayas during the same time, says an expert.
All these systems together will promote widespread weather activity over central, eastern and southern parts of the country from March 13 to 18.
While northern plains will mostly avoid hazardous activity, rain with lightning and thundershowers will occur over South Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Marathwada, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and North Karnataka.
There is also a possibility of hailstorm with strong winds over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra on March 15 and 16.
India has already had above average temperatures this winter, with December and February being the warmest since 1901.
Many researches and studies have been warning of increasing heat stress due to global warming. Many changes in the climate system loom large in direct relation to increasing global warming. These include increases in the frequency and intensity of heat extremes, marine heat waves, heavy rainfall, and agricultural and ecological drought in some regions; increase in the proportion of intense tropical cyclones; and reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost.
According to meteorologists, rising temperature leads to increase in convective activities, thus inviting pre-monsoon showers in the season.
According to the report, ‘Assessment of climate change over the Indian region’, pre-monsoon season heatwave frequency, duration, intensity and air coverage in India are projected to increase substantially during the 21st century.
Pre-monsoon temperature showed the highest warming trend followed by post-monsoon and post-monsoon season. The significant increasing trend in specific humidity observed during the pre-monsoon season is consistent with the trend of greatest surface warming.
Previous studies also reported an increase in atmospheric moisture content associated with warming over the Indian region. An increase in water vapor under conditions of regional warming could have a significant positive feedback on human-induced climate change, as water vapor is the most important contributor to the natural greenhouse effect.
“These weather activities have started early in the season itself. Generally, pre-monsoon activities start during second fortnight of March. Also, rain activities during this season start early morning or late afternoon only. are limited, but such long periods are rare.” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President, Meteorology and Climate Change, Skymet Weather.
“Unusual temperatures this season have triggered multiple weather systems over many parts of the country. There is already a trough running through the central parts. It will be more marked with a Western Disturbance which will continue till March 12. This is a clear example of what kind of climate effects can be expected from global warming.
“As global average temperatures continue to rise, we will see more of this type of weather activity at frequent intervals due to increased heat stress.”
According to another recent study, the important rain-carrying systems during the pre-monsoon season are mesoscale convective systems, thunderstorms and tropical cyclones. The increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events is mainly influenced by global climate change in Asia.
Doubling the increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, especially CO2, is related to an increase in global temperature of 1.5 °C on average. Increase in greenhouse gases in the pre-monsoon season may lead to uncomfortable conditions with extreme heat and humidity throughout the day and night.
“Climate change and global warming are known to have significant impacts on the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events, including heavy rain, thunderstorms and heat waves. Warmer temperatures as a result of global warming could lead to greater evaporation, leading to There could be more moisture in the air and heavy rain events,” said Anjal Prakash, research director, Bharti Institute of Public Policy, Indian School of Business and IPCC author.
In addition, he said, climate change could contribute to the formation of local weather systems, such as thunderstorms and hailstorms, through increased energy and moisture in the atmosphere.
“These weather systems can cause significant damage to crops, resulting in economic losses for farmers and food shortages for communities. It is important to note that individual weather events cannot be directly attributed to climate change. The overall pattern of more frequent and severe extreme weather events is consistent with what scientists expect to see as the planet warms.
“Therefore, it is essential to take action to reduce our carbon footprint in order to mitigate the effects of climate change and prevent global warming and its associated consequences. This includes implementing sustainable practices in agriculture, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and Including investing in renewable energy sources,” Prakash added.